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British General Election Prediction May 5, 2010

Posted by Audit Monkey in The State of the British Nation.
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Well, we’re on the Eve of Voting Day in the British General Election. There’s been tonnes of media speculation regarding a hung parliament. The campaign for the most part, has been by politicians, for politicians and hasn’t really been terribly engaging. It’s been a ‘Alice in Wonderland’ experience; policies to tackle to the huge public sector deficit have been largely ignored by the politicians and they have skirted around the issue to varying degrees.

Anyway, the top three defining moments of the ‘campaign’ for me.

i) The Last Leadership Debate. Let’s face it, the Leadership Debates weren’t debates. So fearful of coming unstuck, the three leaders agreed on such an arbitrary set of rules to regulate the hustings, real challenge couldn’t be exercised by the Chair. It was more an elongated multi-political broadcast. The most banal moment was Gordon Brown claiming that cutting public spending by £6billion would hit the recovery. Of course, this was spin of the worst sort.

ii) The ‘Bigot Gate’ moment. Gillian Duffy asked some simple questions of Gordon Brown which the majority of the electorate wished to have answers to. Admittedly Gillian did trip herself up. Courtesy of ‘The Times’ and transcript of that conversation.

“You can’t say anything about the immigrants because you’re saying you’re – but all these Eastern Europeans coming in, where are they flocking from?”

I think the clue is in the question, Eastern Europe perhaps? You know, Romania, Poland, etc. But jesting aside, the point was the electorate have legitimate concerns on immigration but these have been brushed aside. Immigration is a multi-faceted issue; there is legal and illegal immigration, asylum seekers, transitional immigration such as foreign national students visiting these shores but the issue hasn’t been ‘fully explored’ during the campaign. Gillian also had questions on pension taxation. Sure, her phraseology may have been skew whiff but she deserved a coherent answer.

“No point looking surprised Gill, Eastern Europeans are from Europe…”

iii) Mervyn King. This could be a bit of hearsay but Mervyn King has commented that deficit cuts implemented by the next government could leave such scars in the public imagination that it could ultimately make that party unelectable. This is the real tragedy of this campaign. No politician has been entirely honest on what they will do to resolve this. I would have had more respect for the party who had told it as it is and provided the electorate with some choice, not the opaqueness that has been served up.

Anyway, as I’m suffering from ‘computer eyes’, my prediction. Conservatives a slim majority. In the event of a minority government, if the numbers allow there will be a deal with the Democratic Unionist Party. If Queen Elizabeth II gets dragged into the melee into deciding the government, I will be mortified!